| "Understanding Opportunities and Risks in Futures Trading"
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Futures Markets: What, Why &
Who
- The Market Participants
- What is a Futures Contract?
- The Process of Price Discovery
- After the Closing Bell
- The Arithmetic of Futures
- Trading
- Margins
- Basic Trading Strategies
- Buying (Going Long) to Profit from
an Expected Price Increase Selling
- (Going Short) to Profit from an Expected
Price Decrease Spreads
- Participating in Futures Trading
- Deciding How to Participate
- Regulation of Futures Trading
- Establishing an Account
- What to Look for in a Futures Contract
- The Contract Unit
- How Prices are Quoted
- Minimum Price Changes
- Daily Price Limits
- Position Limits
- Understanding (and Managing) the Risks
of Futures Trading
- Choosing a Futures Contract
- Liquidity
- Timing
- Stop Orders
- Spreads
- Options on Futures Contracts
- Buying Call Options
- Buying Put Options
- How Option Premiums are Determined
- Selling Options
- In Closing
INTRODUCTION
Futures markets have been described as continuous auction markets
and as clearing houses for the latest information about supply
and demand. They are the meeting places of buyers and sellers
of an ever-expanding list of commodities that today includes
agricultural products, metals, petroleum, financial instruments,
foreign currencies and stock indexes. Trading has also been
initiated in options on futures contracts, enabling option buyers
to participate in futures markets with known risks.
Notwithstanding the rapid growth and diversification of futures
markets, their primary purpose remains the same as it has
been for nearly a century and a half, to provide an efficient
and effective mechanism for the management of price risks.
By buying or selling futures contracts--contracts that establish
a price level now for items to be delivered later--individuals
and businesses seek to achieve what amounts to insurance against
adverse price changes. This is called hedging.
Volume has increased from 14 million futures contracts traded
in 1970 to 179 million futures and options on futures contracts
traded in 1985.
Other futures market participants are speculative investors
who accept the risks that hedgers wish to avoid. Most speculators
have no intention of making or taking delivery of the commodity
but, rather, seek to profit from a change in the price. That
is, they buy when they anticipate rising prices and sell when
they anticipate declining prices. The interaction of hedgers
and speculators helps to provide active, liquid and competitive
markets. Speculative participation in futures trading has
become increasingly attractive with the availability of alternative
methods of participation. Whereas many futures traders continue
to prefer to make their own trading decisions--such as what
to buy and sell and when to buy and sell--others choose to
utilize the services of a professional trading advisor, or
to avoid day-to-day trading responsibilities by establishing
a fully managed trading account or participating in a commodity
pool which is similar in concept to a mutual fund.
For those individuals who fully understand and can afford
the risks which are involved, the allocation of some portion
of their capital to futures trading can provide a means of
achieving greater diversification and a potentially higher
overall rate of return on their investments. There are also
a number of ways in which futures can be used in combination
with stocks, bonds and other investments.
Speculation in futures contracts, however, is clearly not
appropriate for everyone. Just as it is possible to realize
substantial profits in a short period of time, it is also
possible to incur substantial losses in a short period of
time. The possibility of large profits or losses in relation
to the initial commitment of capital stems principally from
the fact that futures trading is a highly leveraged form of
speculation. Only a relatively small amount of money is required
to control assets having a much greater value. As we will
discuss and illustrate, the leverage of futures trading can
work for you when prices move in the direction you anticipate
or against you when prices move in the opposite direction.
It is not the purpose of this brochure to suggest that you
should--or should not--participate in futures trading. That
is a decision you should make only after consultation with
your broker or financial advisor and in light of your own
financial situation and objectives.
Intended to help provide you with the kinds of information
you should first obtain--and the questions you should seek
answers to--in regard to any investment you are considering:
* Information about the investment itself and the risks involved
* How readily your investment or position can be liquidated
when such action is necessary or desired
* Who the other market participants are
* Alternate methods of participation
* How prices are arrived at
* The costs of trading
* How gains and losses are realized
* What forms of regulation and protection exist
* The experience, integrity and track record of your broker
or advisor
* The financial stability of the firm with which you are
dealing
In sum, the information you need to be an informed investor.
FUTURES MARKET
The frantic shouting and signaling of bids and offers on
the trading floor of a futures exchange undeniably convey
an impression of chaos. The reality however, is that chaos
is what futures markets replaced. Prior to the establishment
of central grain markets in the mid-nineteenth century, the
nation farmers carted their newly harvested crops over plank
roads to major population and transportation centers each
fall in search of buyers. The seasonal glut drove prices to
giveaway levels and, indeed, to throwaway levels as grain
often rotted in the streets or was dumped in rivers and lakes
for lack of storage. Come spring, shortages frequently developed
and foods made from corn and wheat became barely affordable
luxuries. Throughout the year, it was each buyer and seller
for himself with neither a place nor a mechanism for organized,
competitive bidding. The first central markets were formed
to meet that need. Eventually, contracts were entered into
for forward as well as for spot (immediate) delivery. So-called
forwards were the forerunners of present day futures contracts.
Spurred by the need to manage price and interest rate risks
that exist in virtually every type of modern business, today's
futures markets have also become major financial markets.
Participants include mortgage bankers as well as farmers,
bond dealers as well as grain merchants, and multinational
corporations as well as food processors, savings and loan
associations, and individual speculators.
Futures prices arrived at through competitive bidding are
immediately and continuously relayed around the world by wire
and satellite. A farmer in Nebraska, a merchant in Amsterdam,
an importer in Tokyo and a speculator in Ohio thereby have
simultaneous access to the latest market-derived price quotations.
And, should they choose, they can establish a price level
for future delivery--or for speculative purposes--simply by
having their broker buy or sell the appropriate contracts.
Images created by the fast-paced activity of the trading floor
notwithstanding, regulated futures markets are a keystone
of one of the world's most orderly envied and intensely competitive
marketing systems. Should you at some time decide to trade
in futures contracts, either for speculation or in connection
with a risk management strategy, your orders to buy or sell
would be communicated by phone from the brokerage office you
use and then to the trading pit or ring for execution by a
floor broker. If you are a buyer, the broker will seek a seller
at the lowest available price. If you are a seller, the broker
will seek a buyer at the highest available price. That's what
the shouting and signaling is about.
In either case, the person who takes the opposite side of
your trade may be or may represent someone who is a commercial
hedger or perhaps someone who is a public speculator. Or,
quite possibly, the other party may be an independent floor
trader. In becoming acquainted with futures markets, it is
useful to have at least a general understanding of who these
various market participants are, what they are doing and why.
Hedgers The details of hedging can
be somewhat complex but the principle is simple. Hedgers are
individuals and firms that make purchases and sales in the
futures market solely for the purpose of establishing a known
price level--weeks or months in advance--for something they
later intend to buy or sell in the cash market (such as at
a grain elevator or in the bond market). In this way they
attempt to protect themselves against the risk of an unfavorable
price change in the interim. Or hedgers may use futures to
lock in an acceptable margin between their purchase cost and
their selling price. Consider this example:
A jewelry manufacturer will need to buy additional gold from
his supplier in six months. Between now and then, however,
he fears the price of gold may increase. That could be a problem
because he has already published his catalog for a year ahead.
To lock in the price level at which gold is presently being
quoted for delivery in six months, he buys a futures contract
at a price of, say, $350 an ounce.
If, six months later, the cash market price of gold has risen
to $370, he will have to pay his supplier that amount to acquire
gold. However, the extra $20 an ounce cost will be offset
by a $20 an ounce profit when the futures contract bought
at $350 is sold for $370. In effect, the hedge provided insurance
against an increase in the price of gold. It locked in a net
cost of $350, regardless of what happened to the cash market
price of gold. Had the price of gold declined instead of risen,
he would have incurred a loss on his futures position but
this would have been offset by the lower cost of acquiring
gold in the cash market.
The number and variety of hedging possibilities is practically
limitless. A cattle feeder can hedge against a decline in
livestock prices and a meat packer or supermarket chain can
hedge against an increase in livestock prices. Borrowers can
hedge against higher interest rates, and lenders against lower
interest rates. Investors can hedge against an overall decline
in stock prices, and those who anticipate having money to
invest can hedge against an increase in the over-all level
of stock prices. And the list goes on.
Whatever the hedging strategy, the common denominator is
that hedgers willingly give up the opportunity to benefit
from favorable price changes in order to achieve protection
against unfavorable price changes.
Speculators Were you to speculate in futures contracts,
the person taking the opposite side of your trade on any given
occasion could be a hedger or it might well be another speculator--someone
whose opinion about the probable direction of prices differs
from your own.
The arithmetic of speculation in futures contracts--including
the opportunities it offers and the risks it involves--will
be discussed in detail later on. For now, suffice it to say
that speculators are individuals and firms who seek to profit
from anticipated increases or decreases in futures prices.
In so doing, they help provide the risk capital needed to
facilitate hedging.
Someone who expects a futures price to increase would purchase
futures contracts in the hope of later bring able to sell
them at a higher price. This is known as "going long." Conversely,
someone who expects a futures price to decline would sell
futures contracts in the hope of later being able to buy back
identical and offsetting contracts at a lower price. The practice
of selling futures contracts in anticipation of lower prices
is known as "going short." One of the attractive features
of futures trading is that it is equally easy to profit from
declining prices (by selling) as it is to profit from rising
prices (by buying).
Floor Traders Persons known as floor traders or locals,
who buy and sell for their own accounts on the trading floors
of the exchanges, are the least known and understood of all
futures market participants. Yet their role is an important
one. Like specialists and market makers at securities exchanges,
they help to provide market liquidity. If there isn't a hedger
or another speculator who is immediately willing to take the
other side of your order at or near the going price, the chances
are there will be an independent floor trader who will do
so, in the hope of minutes or even seconds later being able
to make an offsetting trade at a small profit. In the grain
markets, for example, there is frequently only one-fourth
of a cent a bushel difference between the prices at which
a floor trader buys and sells.
Floor traders, of course, have no guarantee they will realize
a profit. They may end up losing money on any given trade.
Their presence, however, makes for more liquid and competitive
markets. It should be pointed out, however, that unlike market
makers or specialists, floor traders are not obligated to
maintain a liquid market or to take the opposite side of customer
orders.
| |
Reasons for Buying futures contracts |
Reasons for Selling futures contracts |
| Hedgers |
To lock in a price and thereby obtain protection against
rising prices |
To lock in a price and thereby obtain protection against
declining prices |
| Speculators and floor Traders |
To profit from rising prices |
To profit from declining prices |
What is a Futures
Contract?
There are two types of futures contracts, those that provide
for physical delivery of a particular commodity or item and
those which call for a cash settlement. The month during which
delivery or settlement is to occur is specified. Thus, a July
futures contract is one providing for delivery or settlement
in July.
It should be noted that even in the case of delivery-type
futures contracts,very few actually result in delivery.* Not
many speculators have the desire to take or make delivery
of, say, 5,000 bushels of wheat, or 112,000 pounds of sugar,
or a million dollars worth of U.S. Treasury bills for that
matter. Rather, the vast majority of speculators in futures
markets choose to realize their gains or losses by buying
or selling offsetting futures contracts prior to the delivery
date. Selling a contract that was previously purchased liquidates
a futures position in exactly the same way, for example, that
selling 100 shares of IBM stock liquidates an earlier purchase
of 100 shares of IBM stock. Similarly, a futures contract
that was initially sold can be liquidated by an offsetting
purchase. In either case, gain or loss is the difference between
the buying price and the selling price.
Even hedgers generally don't make or take delivery. Most,
like the jewelry manufacturer illustrated earlier, find it
more convenient to liquidate their futures positions and (if
they realize a gain) use the money to offset whatever adverse
price change has occurred in the cash market.
* When delivery does occur it is in the form of a negotiable
instrument (such as a warehouse receipt) that evidences the
holder's ownership of the commodity, at some designated location.
Why Strong Delivery?
Since delivery on futures contracts is the exception rather
than the rule, why do most contracts even have a delivery
provision? There are two reasons. One is that it offers buyers
and sellers the opportunity to take or make delivery of the
physical commodity if they so choose. More importantly, however,
the fact that buyers and sellers can take or make delivery
helps to assure that futures prices will accurately reflect
the cash market value of the commodity at the time the contract
expires--i.e., that futures and cash prices will eventually
converge. It is convergence that makes hedging an effective
way to obtain protection against an adverse change in the
cash market price.*
* Convergence occurs at the expiration of the futures contract
because any difference between the cash and futures prices
would quickly be negated by profit-minded investors who would
buy the commodity in the lowest-price market and sell it in
the highest-price market until the price difference disappeared.
This is known as arbitrage and is a form of trading generally
best left to professionals in the cash and futures markets.
Cash settlement futures contracts are precisely that, contracts
which are settled in cash rather than by delivery at the time
the contract expires. Stock index futures contracts, for example,
are settled in cash on the basis of the index number at the
close of the final day of trading. There is no provision for
delivery of the shares of stock that make up the various indexes.
That would be impractical. With a cash settlement contract,
convergence is automatic.
The Process of Price Discovery Futures
prices increase and decrease largely because of the myriad
factors that influence buyers' and sellers' judgments about
what a particular commodity will be worth at a given time
in the future (anywhere from less than a month to more than
two years).
As new supply and demand developments occur and as new and
more current information becomes available, these judgments
are reassessed and the price of a particular futures contract
may be bid upward or downward. The process of reassessment--of
price discovery--is continuous.
Thus, in January, the price of a July futures contract would
reflect the consensus of buyers' and sellers' opinions at
that time as to what the value of a commodity or item will
be when the contract expires in July. On any given day, with
the arrival of new or more accurate information, the price
of the July futures contract might increase or decrease in
response to changing expectations.
Competitive price discovery is a major economic function--and,
indeed, a major economic benefit--of futures trading. The
trading floor of a futures exchange is where available information
about the future value of a commodity or item is translated
into the language of price. In summary, futures prices are
an ever changing barometer of supply and demand and, in a
dynamic market, the only certainty is that prices will change.
After the Closing Bell Once a closing
bell signals the end of a day's trading, the exchange's clearing
organization matches each purchase made that day with its
corresponding sale and tallies each member firm's gains or
losses based on that day's price changes--a massive undertaking
considering that nearly two-thirds of a million futures contracts
are bought and sold on an average day. Each firm, in turn,
calculates the gains and losses for each of its customers
having futures contracts.
Gains and losses on futures contracts are not only calculated
on a daily basis, they are credited and deducted on a daily
basis. Thus, if a speculator were to have, say, a $300 profit
as a result of the day's price changes, that amount would
be immediately credited to his brokerage account and, unless
required for other purposes, could be withdrawn. On the other
hand, if the day's price changes had resulted in a $300 loss,
his account would be immediately debited for that amount.
The process just described is known as a daily cash settlement
and is an important feature of futures trading. As will be
seen when we discuss margin requirements, it is also the reason
a customer who incurs a loss on a futures position may be
called on to deposit additional funds to his account.
The Arithmetic of Futures Trading To
say that gains and losses in futures trading are the result
of price changes is an accurate explanation but by no means
a complete explanation. Perhaps more so than in any other
form of speculation or investment, gains and losses in futures
trading are highly leveraged. An understanding of leverage--and
of how it can work to your advantage or disadvantage--is crucial
to an understanding of futures trading.
As mentioned in the introduction, the leverage of futures
trading stems from the fact that only a relatively small amount
of money (known as initial margin) is required to buy or sell
a futures contract. On a particular day, a margin deposit
of only $1,000 might enable you to buy or sell a futures contract
covering $25,000 worth of soybeans. Or for $6,000, you might
be able to purchase a futures contract covering common stocks
worth $100,000. The smaller the margin in relation to the
value of the futures contract, the greater the leverage.
If you speculate in futures contracts and the price moves
in the direction you anticipated, high leverage can produce
large profits in relation to your initial margin. Conversely,
if prices move in the opposite direction, high leverage can
produce large losses in relation to your initial margin. Leverage
is a two-edged sword.
For example, assume that in anticipation of rising stock
prices you buy one June S&P 500 stock index futures contract
at a time when the June index is trading at 200. And assume
your initial margin requirement is $6,000. Since the value
of the futures contract is $500 times the index, each 1 point
change in the index represents a $500 gain or loss.
Thus, an increase in the index from 200 to 212 would double
your $6,000 margin deposit and a decrease from 200 to 188
would wipe it out. That's a 100% gain or loss as the result
of only a 6% change in the stock index!
Said another way, while buying (or selling) a futures contract
provides exactly the same dollars and cents profit potential
as owning (or selling short) the actual commodities or items
covered by the contract, low margin requirements sharply increase
the percentage profit or loss potential. For example, it can
be one thing to have the value of your portfolio of common
stocks decline from $100,000 to $94,000 (a 6% loss) but quite
another (at least emotionally) to deposit $6,000 as margin
for a futures contract and end up losing that much or more
as the result of only a 6% price decline. Futures trading
thus requires not only the necessary financial resources but
also the necessary financial and emotional temperament.
Trading An absolute requisite for
anyone considering trading in futures contracts--whether it's
sugar or stock indexes, pork bellies or petroleum--is to clearly
understand the concept of leverage as well as the amount of
gain or loss that will result from any given change in the
futures price of the particular futures contract you would
be trading. If you cannot afford the risk, or even if you
are uncomfortable with the risk, the only sound advice is
don't trade. Futures trading is not for everyone.
Margins As is apparent from the
preceding discussion, the arithmetic of leverage is the arithmetic
of margins. An understanding of margins--and of the several
different kinds of margin--is essential to an understanding
of futures trading.
If your previous investment experience has mainly involved
common stocks, you know that the term margin--as used in connection
with securities--has to do with the cash down payment and
money borrowed from a broker to purchase stocks. But used
in connection with futures trading, margin has an altogether
different meaning and serves an altogether different purpose.
Rather than providing a down payment, the margin required
to buy or sell a futures contract is solely a deposit of good
faith money that can be drawn on by your brokerage firm to
cover losses that you may incur in the course of futures trading.
It is much like money held in an escrow account. Minimum margin
requirements for a particular futures contract at a particular
time are set by the exchange on which the contract is traded.
They are typically about five percent of the current value
of the futures contract. Exchanges continuously monitor market
conditions and risks and, as necessary, raise or reduce their
margin requirements. Individual brokerage firms may require
higher margin amounts from their customers than the exchange-set
minimums.
There are two margin-related terms you should know: Initial
margin and maintenance margin.
Initial margin (sometimes called original margin) is the sum of money
that the customer must deposit with the brokerage firm for
each futures contract to be bought or sold. On any day that
profits accrue on your open positions, the profits will be
added to the balance in your margin account. On any day losses
accrue, the losses will be deducted from the balance in your
margin account.
If and when the funds remaining available in your margin
account are reduced by losses to below a certain level--known
as the maintenance margin requirement--your broker will require that you deposit
additional funds to bring the account back to the level of
the initial margin. Or, you may also be asked for additional
margin if the exchange or your brokerage firm raises its margin
requirements. Requests for additional margin are known as
margin calls.
Assume, for example, that the initial margin needed to buy
or sell a particular futures contract is $2,000 and that the
maintenance margin requirement is $1,500. Should losses on
open positions reduce the funds remaining in your trading
account to, say, $1,400 (an amount less than the maintenance
requirement), you will receive a margin call for the $600
needed to restore your account to $2,000.
Before trading in futures contracts, be sure you understand
the brokerage firm's Margin Agreement and know how and when
the firm expects margin calls to be met. Some firms may require
only that you mail a personal check. Others may insist you
wire transfer funds from your bank or provide same-day or
next-day delivery of a certified or cashier's check. If margin
calls are not met in the prescribed time and form, the firm
can protect itself by liquidating your open positions at the
available market price (possibly resulting in an unsecured
loss for which you would be liable).
Basic Trading Strategies Even if
you should decide to participate in futures trading in a way
that doesn't involve having to make day-to-day trading decisions
(such as a managed account or commodity pool), it is nonetheless
useful to understand the dollars and cents of how futures
trading gains and losses are realized. And, of course, if
you intend to trade your own account, such an understanding
is essential.
Dozens of different strategies and variations of strategies
are employed by futures traders in pursuit of speculative
profits. Here is a brief description and illustration of several
basic strategies.
- Buying (Going Long) to Profit from
an Expected Price Increase
Someone expecting the price of a particular commodity or item
to increase over from a given period of time can seek to profit
by buying futures contracts. If correct in forecasting the direction
and timing of the price change, the futures contract can later
be sold for the higher price, thereby yielding a profit.* If
the price declines rather than increases, the trade will result
in a loss. Because of leverage, the gain or loss may be greater
than the initial margin deposit. For example,
assume it's now January, the July soybean futures contract
is presently quoted at $6.00, and over the coming months you
expect the price to increase. You decide to deposit the required
initial margin of, say, $1,500 and buy one July soybean futures
contract. Further assume that by April the July soybean futures
price has risen to $6.40 and you decide to take your profit
by selling. Since each contract is for 5,000 bushels, your
40-cent a bushel profit would be 5,000 bushels x 40 cents
or $2,000 less transaction costs.
| |
|
Price per bushel |
Value of 5,000 bushel contract |
| January |
Buy 1 July soybean futures contract |
$6.00 |
$30,000 |
| April |
Sell 1 July soybean futures contract |
$6.40 |
$32,000 |
| |
Gain |
$ .40 |
$ 2,000 |
* For simplicity examples do not take into account
commissions and other transaction costs. These costs are important,
however, and you should be sure you fully understand them.
Suppose, however, that rather than rising to $6.40, the July
soybean futures price had declined to $5.60 and that, in order
to avoid the possibility of further loss, you elect to sell
the contract at that price. On 5,000 bushels your 40-cent a
bushel loss would thus come to $2,000 plus transaction costs.
| |
|
Price per bushel |
Value of 5,000 bushel contract |
| January |
Buy 1 July soybean futures contract |
$6.00 |
$30,000 |
| April |
Sell 1 July bean futures contract |
$5.60 |
$28,000 |
| |
Loss |
$ .40 |
$ 2,000 |
Note that the loss in this example exceeded your $1,500
initial margin. Your broker would then call upon you, as needed,
for additional margin funds to cover the loss. (Going
short) to profit from an expected price decrease The only way
going short to profit from an expected price decrease differs
from going long to profit from an expected price increase is
the sequence of the trades. Instead of first buying a futures
contract, you first sell a futures contract. If, as expected,
the price declines, a profit can be realized by later purchasing
an offsetting futures contract at the lower price. The gain
per unit will be the amount by which the purchase price is below
the earlier selling price. For example,
assume that in January your research or other available information
indicates a probable decrease in cattle prices over the next
several months. In the hope of profiting, you deposit an initial
margin of $2,000 and sell one April live cattle futures contract
at a price of, say, 65 cents a pound. Each contract is for 40,000
pounds, meaning each 1 cent a pound change in price will increase
or decrease the value of the futures contract by $400. If, by
March, the price has declined to 60 cents a pound, an offsetting
futures contract can be purchased at 5 cents a pound below the
original selling price. On the 40,000 pound contract, that's
a gain of 5 cents x 40,000 lbs. or $2,000 less transaction costs.
| |
|
Price per pound |
Value of 40,000 pound contract |
| January |
Sell 1 April livecattle futures contract |
65 cents |
$26,000 |
| March |
Buy 1 April live cattle futures contract |
60 cents |
$24,000 |
| |
Gain |
5 cents |
$ 2,000 |
Assume you
were wrong. Instead of decreasing, the April live cattle futures
price increases--to, say, 70 cents a pound by the time in March
when you eventually liquidate your short futures position through
an offsetting purchase. The outcome would be as follows:
| |
|
Price per pound |
Value of 40,000 pound contract |
| January |
Sell 1 April live cattle futures contract |
65 cents |
$26,000 |
| March |
Buy 1 April live cattle futures contract |
70 cents |
$28,000 |
| |
Loss |
5 cents |
$ 2,000 |
In this example, the loss of 5 cents
a pound on the futures transaction resulted in a total loss
of the $2,000 you deposited as initial margin plus transaction
costs. Spreads While most speculative
futures transactions revolve a simple purchase of futures contracts
to profit from an expected price increase--or an equally simple
sale to profit from an expected price decrease--numerous other
possible strategies exist. Spreads are one example. A
spread, at least in its simplest form, involves buying one futures
contract and selling another futures contract. The purpose is
to profit from an expected change in the relationship between
the purchase price of one and the selling price of the other.
As an illustration, assume it's now November, that the March
wheat futures price is presently $3.10 a bushel and the May
wheat futures price is presently $3.15 a bushel, a difference
of 5 cents. Your analysis of market conditions indicates that,
over the next few months, the price difference between the two
contracts will widen to become greater than 5 cents. To profit
if you are right, you could sell the March futures contract
(the lower priced contract) and buy the May futures contract
(the higher priced contract). Assume time and events prove
you right and that, by February, the March futures price has
risen to $3.20 and May futures price is $3.35, a difference
of 15 cents. By liquidating both contracts at this time, you
can realize a net gain of 10 cents a bushel. Since each contract
is 5,000 bushels, the total gain is $500.
| November |
Sell March wheat |
Buy May wheat |
Spread |
| |
$3.10 Bu. |
$3.15 Bu. |
5 cents |
| February |
Buy March wheat |
Sell May wheat |
|
| |
$3.20 |
$3.35 |
15 cents |
| |
$ .10 loss |
$ .20 gain |
|
Net gain 10 cents Bu. Gain on 5,000 Bu. contract $500
Had the spread (i.e. the price difference) narrowed by 10 cents
a bushel rather than widened by 10 cents a bushel the transactions
just illustrated would have resulted in a loss of $500.
Virtually unlimited numbers and types of spread possibilities
exist, as do many other, even more complex futures trading strategies.
These, however, are beyond the scope of an introductory booklet
and should be considered only by someone who well understands
the risk/reward arithmetic involved.
Participating in Futures Trading Now that
you have an overview of what futures markets are, why they exist
and how they work, the next step is to consider various ways
in which you may be able to participate in futures trading.
There are a number of alternatives and the only best alternative--if
you decide to participate at all--is whichever one is best for
you. Also discussed is the opening of a futures trading account,
the regulatory safeguards provided participants in futures markets,
and methods for resolving disputes, should they arise.
Deciding How to Participate
At the risk of oversimplification, choosing
a method of participation is largely a matter of deciding
how directly and extensively you, personally, want to be involved
in making trading decisions and managing your account. Many
futures traders prefer to do their own research and analysis
and make their own decisions about what and when to buy and
sell. That is, they manage their own futures trades in much
the same way they would manage their own stock portfolios.
Others choose to rely on or at least consider the recommendations
of a brokerage firm or account executive. Some purchase independent
trading advice. Others would rather have someone else be responsible
for trading their account and therefore give trading authority
to their broker. Still others purchase an interest in a commodity
trading pool.
There's no formula for deciding. Your
decision should, however, take into account such things as
your knowledge of and any previous experience in futures trading,
how much time and attention you are able to devote to trading,
the amount of capital you can afford to commit to futures,
and, by no means least, your individual temperament and tolerance
for risk. The latter is important. Some individuals thrive
on being directly involved in the fast pace of futures trading,
others are unable, reluctant, or lack the time to make the
immediate decisions that are frequently required. Some recognize
and accept the fact that futures trading all but inevitably
involves having some losing trades. Others lack the necessary
disposition or discipline to acknowledge that they were wrong
on this particular occasion and liquidate the position.
Many experienced traders thus suggest
that, of all the things you need to know before trading in
futures contracts, one of the most important is to know yourself.
This can help you make the right decision about whether to
participate at all and, if so, in what way.
In no event, it bears repeating, should
you participate in futures trading unless the capital you
would commit its risk capital. That is, capital which, in
pursuit of larger profits, you can afford to lose. It should
be capital over and above that needed for necessities, emergencies,
savings and achieving your long-term investment objectives.
You should also understand that, because of the leverage involved
in futures, the profit and loss fluctuations may be wider
than in most types of investment activity and you may be required
to cover deficiencies due to losses over and above what you
had expected to commit to futures.
Trade Your Own Account
This involves opening your individual
trading account and--with or without the recommendations of
the brokerage firm--making your own trading decisions. You
will also be responsible for assuring that adequate funds
are on deposit with the brokerage firm for margin purposes,
or that such funds are promptly provided as needed.
Practically all of the major brokerage
firms you are familiar with, and many you may not be familiar
with, have departments or even separate divisions to serve
clients who warn to allocate some portion of their investment
capital to futures trading. All brokerage firms conducting
futures business with the public must be registered with the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC, the independent
regulatory agency of the federal government that administers
the Commodity Exchange Act) as Futures Commission Merchants
or Introducing Brokers and must be Members of National Futures
Association (NFA, the industrywide self-regulatory association).
Different firms offer different services.
Some, for example, have extensive research departments and
can provide current information and analysis concerning market
developments as well as specific trading suggestions. Others
tailor their services to clients who prefer to make market
judgments and arrive at trading decisions on their own. Still
others offer various combinations of these and other services.
An individual trading account can be opened
either directly with a Futures Commission Merchant or indirectly
through an Introducing Broker. Whichever course you choose,
the account itself will be carried by a Futures Commission
Merchant, as will your money. Introducing Brokers do not accept
or handle customer funds but most offer a variety of trading-related
services.
Futures Commission Merchants are required
to maintain the funds and property of their customers in segregated
accounts, separate from the firm's own money.
Along with the particular services a firm
provides, discuss the commissions and trading costs that will
be involved. And, as mentioned, clearly understand how the
firm requires that any margin calls be met. If you have a
question about whether a firm is properly registered with
the CFTC and is a Member of NFA, you can (and should) contact
NFA's Information Center toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within
Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Have Someone Manage Your Account
A managed account is also your individual
account. The major difference is that you give someone rise--an
account manager--written power of attorney to make and execute
decisions about what and when to trade. He or she will have
discretionary authority to buy or sell for your account or
will contact you for approval to make trades he or she suggests.
You, of course, remain fully responsible for any losses which
may be incurred and, as necessary, for meeting margin calls,
including making up any deficiencies that exceed your margin
deposits.
Although an account manager is likely
to be managing the accounts of other persons at the same time,
there is no sharing of gains or losses of other customers.
Trading gains or losses in your account will result solely
from trades which were made for your account.
Many Futures Commission Merchants and
Introducing Brokers accept managed accounts. In most instances,
the amount of money needed to open a managed account is larger
than the amount required to establish an account you intend
to trade yourself. Different firms and account managers, however,
have different requirements and the range can be quite wide.
Be certain to read and understand all of the literature and
agreements you receive from the broker.
Some account managers have their own trading
approaches and accept only clients to whom that approach is
acceptable. Others tailor their trading to a client's objectives.
In either case, obtain enough information and ask enough questions
to assure yourself that your money will be managed in a way
that's consistent with your goals.
Discuss fees.
In addition to commissions on trades made for your account,
it is not uncommon for account managers to charge a management
fee, and/or there may be some arrangement for the manager
to participate in the net profits that his management produces.
These charges are required to be fully disclosed in advance.
Make sure you know about every charge to be made to your account
and what each charge is for.
While there can be no assurance that past
performance will be indicative of future performance, it can
be useful to inquire about the track record of an account
manager you are considering. Account managers associated with
a Futures Commission Merchant or Introducing Broker must generally
meet certain experience requirements if the account is to
be traded on a discretionary basis.
Finally, take note of whether the account
management agreement includes a provision to automatically
liquidate positions and close out the account if and when
losses exceed a certain amount. And, of course, you should
know and agree on what will be done with profits, and what,
if any, restrictions apply to withdrawals from the account.
Use a Commodity Trading Advisor
As the term implies, a Commodity Trading
Advisor is an individual (or firm) that, for a fee, provides
advice on commodity trading, including specific trading recommendations
such as when to establish a particular long or short position
and when to liquidate that position. Generally, to help you
choose trading strategies that match your trading objectives,
advisors offer analyses and judgments as to the prospective
rewards and risks of the trades they suggest. Trading recommendations
may be communicated by phone, wire or mail. Some offer the
opportunity for you to phone when you have questions and some
provide a frequently updated hotline you can call for a recording
of current information and trading advice.
Even though you may trade on the basis
of an advisor's recommendations, you will need to open your
own account with, and send your margin payments directly to,
a Futures Commission Merchant. Commodity Trading Advisors
cannot accept or handle their customers funds unless they
are also registered as Futures Commission Merchants.
Some Commodity Trading Advisors offer
managed accounts. The account itself, however, must still
be with a Futures Commission Merchant and in your name, with
the advisor designated in writing to make and execute trading
decisions on a discretionary basis.
CFTC Regulations require that Commodity
Trading Advisors provide their customers, in advance, with
what is called a Disclosure Document. Read it carefully and
ask the Commodity Trading Advisor to explain any points you
don't understand. If your money is important to you, so is
the information contained in the Disclosure Document!
The prospectus-like document contains
information about the advisor, his experience and, by no means
least, his current (and any previous) performance records.
If you use an advisor to manage your account, he must first
obtain a signed acknowledgment from you that you have received
and understood the Disclosure Document. As in any method of
participating in futures trading, discuss and understand the
advisor's fee arrangements. And if he will be managing your
account, ask the same questions you would ask of any account
manager you are considering.
Commodity Trading Advisors must be registered
as such with the CFTC, and those that accept authority to
manage customer accounts must also be Members of NFA. You
can verify that these requirements have been met by calling
NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Participate in Commodity Pool
Another alternative method of participating
in futures trading is through a commodity pool, which is similar
in concept to a common stock mutual fund. It is the only method
of participation in which you will not have your own individual
trading account. Instead, your money will be combined with
that of other pool participants and, in effect, traded as
a single account. You share in the profits or losses of the
pool in proportion to your investment in the pool. One potential
advantage is greater diversification of risks than you might
obtain if you were to establish your own trading account.
Another is that your risk of loss is generally limited to
your investment in the pool, because most pools are formed
as limited partnerships. And you won't be subject to margin
calls.
Bear in mind, however, that the risks
which a pool incurs in any given futures transaction are no
different than the risks incurred by an individual trader.
The pool still trades in futures contracts which are highly
leveraged and in markets which can be highly volatile. And
like an individual trader, the pool can suffer substantial
losses as well as realize substantial profits. A major consideration,
therefore, is who will be managing the pool in terms of directing
its trading.
While a pool must execute all of its trades
through a brokerage firm which is registered with the CFTC
as a Futures Commission Merchant, it may or may not have any
other affiliation with the brokerage firm. Some brokerage
firms, to serve those customers who prefer to participate
in commodity trading through a pool, either operate or have
a relationship with one or more commodity trading pools. Other
pools operate independently.
A Commodity Pool Operator cannot accept
your money until it has provided you with a Disclosure Document
that contains information about the pool operator, the pool's
principals and any outside persons who will be providing trading
advice or making trading decisions. It must also disclose
the previous performance records, if any, of all persons who
will be operating or advising the pool lot, if none, a statement
to that effect). Disclosure Documents contain important information
and should be carefully read before you invest your money.
Another requirement is that the Disclosure Document advise
you of the risks involved.
In the case of a new pool, there is frequently
a provision that the pool will not begin trading until (and
unless) a certain amount of money is raised. Normally, a time
deadline is set and the Commodity Pool Operator is required
to state in the Disclosure Document what that deadline is
(or, if there is none, that the time period for raising, funds
is indefinite). Be sure you understand the terms, including
how your money will be invested in the meantime, what interest
you will earn (if any), and how and when your investment will
be returned in the event the pool does not commence trading.
Determine whether you will be responsible
for any losses in excess of your investment in the pool. If
so, this must be indicated prominently at the beginning of
the pool's Disclosure Document.
Ask about fees and other costs, including
what, if any, initial charges will be made against your investment
for organizational or administrative expenses. Such information
should be noted in the Disclosure Document. You should also
determine from the Disclosure Document how the pool's operator
and advisor are compensated. Understand, too, the procedure
for redeeming your shares in the pool, any restrictions that
may exist, and provisions for liquidating and dissolving the
pool if more than a certain percentage of the capital were
to be lost,
Ask about the pool operator's general
trading philosophy, what types of contracts will be traded,
whether they will be day-traded, etc.
With few exceptions, Commodity Pool Operators
must be registered with the CFTC and be Members of NFA. You
can verify that these requirements have been met by contacting
NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Regulation of Futures Trading Firms and individuals that conduct
futures trading business with the public are subject to regulation
by the CFTC and by NFA. All futures exchanges are also regulated
by the CFTC. NFA is a congressionally authorized self-regulatory
organization subject to CFTC oversight. It exercises regulatory
Authority with the CFTC over Futures Commission Merchants,
Introducing Brokers, Commodity Trading Advisors, Commodity
Pool Operators and Associated Persons (salespersons) of all
of the foregoing. The NFA staff consists of more than 140
field auditors and investigators. In addition, NFA has the
responsibility for registering persons and firms that are
required to be registered with the CFTC. Firms and individuals
that violate NFA rules of professional ethics and conduct
or that fail to comply with strictly enforced financial and
record-keeping requirements can, if circumstances warrant,
be permanently barred from engaging in any futures-related
business with the public. The enforcement powers of the CFTC
are similar to those of other major federal regulatory agencies,
including the power to seek criminal prosecution by the Department
of Justice where circumstances warrant such action.
Futures Commission Merchants which are members of an exchange
are subject to not only CFTC and NFA regulation but to regulation
by the exchanges of which they are members. Exchange regulatory
staffs are responsible, subject to CFTC oversight, for the
business conduct and financial responsibility of their member
firms. Violations of exchange rules can result in substantial
fines, suspension or revocation of trading privileges, and
loss of exchange membership. Words of Caution
It is against the law for any person or firm to offer futures
contracts for purchase or sale unless those contracts are
traded on one of the nation's regulated futures exchanges
and unless the person or firm is registered with the CFTC.
Moreover, persons and firms conducting futures-related business
with the public must be Members of NFA. Thus, you should be
extremely cautious if approached by someone attempting to
sell you a commodity-related investment unless you are able
to verify that the offeror is registered with the CFTC and
is a Member of NFA. In a number of cases, sellers of
illegal off-exchange futures contracts have labeled their
investments by different names--such as "deferred delivery,"
"forward" or "partial payment" contracts--in an attempt to
avoid the strict laws applicable to regulated futures trading.
Many operate out of telephone boiler rooms, employ high-pressure
and misleading sales tactics, and may state that they are
exempt from registration and regulatory requirements. This,
in itself, should be reason enough to conduct a check before
you write a check. You can quickly verify whether a particular
firm or person is currently registered with the CFTC and is
an NFA Member by phoning NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within
Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Establishing an Account At the
time you apply to establish a futures trading account, you
can expect to be asked for certain information beyond simply
your name, address and phone number. The requested information
will generally include (but not necessarily be limited to)
your income, net worth, what previous investment or futures
trading experience you have had, and any other information
needed in order to advise you of the risks involved in trading
futures contracts. At a minimum, the person or firm who will
handle your account is required to provide you with risk disclosure
documents or statements specified by the CFTC and obtain written
acknowledgment that you have received and understood them.
Opening a futures account is a serious decision--no less so
than making any major financial investment--and should obviously
be approached as such. Just as you wouldn't consider buying
a car or a house without carefully reading and understanding
the terms of the contract, neither should you establish a
trading account without first reading and understanding the
Account Agreement and all other documents supplied by your
broker. It is in your interest and the firm's interest that
you dearly know your rights and obligations as well as the
rights and obligations of the firm with which you are dealing
before you enter into any futures transaction. If you have
questions about exactly what any provisions of the Agreement
mean, don't hesitate to ask. A good and continuing relationship
can exist only if both parties have, from the outset, a clear
understanding of the relationship. Nor should you be
hesitant to ask, in advance, what services you will be getting
for the trading commissions the firm charges. As indicated
earlier, not all firms offer identical services. And not all
clients have identical needs. If it is important to you, for
example, you might inquire about the firm's research capability,
and whatever reports it makes available to clients. Other
subjects of inquiry could be how transaction and statement
information will be provided, and how your orders will be
handled and executed. If a Dispute Should Arise
All but a small percentage of transactions involving regulated
futures contracts take place without problems or misunderstandings.
However, in any business in which some 150 million or more
contracts are traded each year, occasional disagreements are
inevitable. Obviously, the best way to resolve a disagreement
is through direct discussions by the parties involved. Failing
this, however, participants in futures markets have several
alternatives (unless some particular method has been agreed
to in advance). Under certain circumstances, it may be possible
to seek resolution through the exchange where the futures
contracts were traded. Or a claim for reparations may be filed
with the CFTC. However, a newer, generally faster and less
expensive alternative is to apply to resolve the disagreement
through the arbitration program conducted by National Futures
Association. There are several advantages:
You can elect, if you prefer, to have arbitrators who have
no connection with the futures industry. You do not
have to allege or prove that any law or rule was broken only
that you were dealt with improperly or unfairly. In
some cases, it may be possible to conduct arbitration entirely
through written submissions. If a hearing is required, it
can generally be scheduled at a time and place convenient
for both parties. Unless you wish to do so, you do not
have to employ an attorney.
For a plain language explanation of the arbitration program
and how it works, write or phone NFA for a copy of Arbitration:
A Way to Resolve Futures-Related Disputes. The booklet is
available at no cost.
What to Look for in a Futures Contract?
Whatever type of investment you are considering--including
but not limited to futures contracts--it makes sense to begin
by obtaining as much information as possible about that particular
investment. The more you know in advance, the less likely
there will be surprises later on. Moreover, even among futures
contracts, there are important differences which--because
they can affect your investment results--should be taken into
account in making your investment decisions.
Delivery-type futures contracts stipulate the specifications
of the commodity to be delivered (such as 5,000 bushels of grain,
40,000 pounds of livestock, or 100 troy ounces of gold). Foreign
currency futures provide for delivery of a specified number
of marks, francs, yen, pounds or pesos. U.S. Treasury obligation
futures are in terms of instruments having a stated face value
(such as $100,000 or $1 million) at maturity. Futures contracts
that call for cash settlement rather than delivery are based
on a given index number times a specified dollar multiple. This
is the case, for example, with stock index futures. Whatever
the yardstick, it's important to know precisely what it is you
would be buying or selling, and the quantity you would be buying
or selling.
Futures prices are usually quoted the same way prices are quoted
in the cash market (where a cash market exists). That is, in
dollars, cents, and sometimes fractions of a cent, per bushel,
pound or ounce; also in dollars, cents and increments of a cent
for foreign currencies; and in points and percentages of a point
for financial instruments. Cash settlement contract prices are
quoted in terms of an index number, usually stated to two decimal
points. Be certain you understand the price quotation system
for the particular futures contract you are considering.
Exchanges establish the minimum amount that the price can fluctuate
upward or downward. This is known as the "tick" For example,
each tick for grain is 0.25 cents per bushel. On a 5,000 bushel
futures contract, that's $12.50. On a gold futures contract,
the tick is 10 cents per ounce, which on a 100 ounce contract
is $10. You'll want to familiarize yourself with the minimum
price fluctuation--the tick size--for whatever futures contracts
you plan to trade. And, of course, you'll need to know how a
price change of any given amount will affect the value of the
contract.
Exchanges establish daily price limits for trading in futures
contracts. The limits are stated in terms of the previous day's
closing price plus and minus so many cents or dollars per trading
unit. Once a futures price has increased by its daily limit,
there can be no trading at any higher price until the next day
of trading. Conversely, once a futures price has declined by
its daily limit, there can be no trading at any lower price
until the next day of trading. Thus, if the daily limit for
a particular grain is currently 10 cents a bushel and the previous
day's settlement price was $3.00, there can not be trading during
the current day at any price below $2.90 or above $3.10. The
price is allowed to increase or decrease by the limit amount
each day. For some contracts, daily price limits are eliminated
during the month in which the contract expires. Because prices
can become particularly volatile during the expiration month
(also called the "delivery" or "spot" month), persons lacking
experience in futures trading may wish to liquidate their positions
prior to that time. Or, at the very least, trade cautiously
and with an understanding of the risks which may be involved.
Daily price limits set by the exchanges are subject to change.
They can, for example, be increased once the market price has
increased or decreased by the existing limit for a given number
of successive days. Because of daily price limits, there
may be occasions when it is not possible to liquidate an existing
futures position at will. In this event, possible alternative
strategies should be discussed with a broker
Although the average trader is unlikely to ever approach them,
exchanges and the CFTC establish limits on the maximum speculative
position that any one person can have at one time in any one
futures contract. The purpose is to prevent one buyer or seller
from being able to exert undue influence on the price in either
the establishment or liquidation of positions. Position limits
are stated in number of contracts or total units of the commodity.
The easiest way to obtain the types of information just discussed
is to ask your broker or other advisor to provide you with a
copy of the contract specifications for the specific futures
contracts you are thinking about trading. Or you can obtain
the information from the exchange where the contract is traded.
Understanding (and Managing)
Anyone buying or selling futures contracts should clearly understand
that the Risks of any given transaction may result in a Futures
Trading loss. The loss may exceed not only the amount of the
initial margin but also the entire amount deposited in the account
or more. Moreover, while there are a number of steps which can
be taken in an effort to limit the size of possible losses,
there can be no guarantees that these steps will prove effective.
Well-informed futures traders should, nonetheless, be familiar
with available risk management possibilities.
Choosing a Futures Contract
Just as different common stocks or different bonds may involve
different degrees of probable risk. and reward at a particular
time, so may different futures contracts. The market for one
commodity may, at present, be highly volatile, perhaps because
of supply-demand uncertainties which--depending on future developments--could
suddenly propel prices sharply higher or sharply lower. The
market for some other commodity may currently be less volatile,
with greater likelihood that prices will fluctuate in a narrower
range. You should be able to evaluate and choose the futures
contracts that appear--based on present information--most likely
to meet your objectives and willingness to accept risk. Keep
in mind, however, that neither past nor even present price behavior
provides assurance of what will occur in the future. Prices
that have been relatively stable may become highly volatile
(which is why many individuals and firms choose to hedge against
unforeseeable price changes).
There can be no ironclad assurance that, at all times, a liquid
market will exist for offsetting a futures contract that you
have previously bought or sold. This could be the case if, for
example, a futures price has increased or decreased by the maximum
allowable daily limit and there is no one presently willing
to buy the futures contract you want to sell or sell the futures
contract you want to buy. Even on a day-to-day basis,
some contracts and some delivery months tend to be more actively
traded and liquid than others. Two useful indicators of liquidity
are the volume of trading and the open interest (the number
of open futures positions still remaining to be liquidated by
an offsetting trade or satisfied by delivery). These figures
are usually reported in newspapers that carry futures quotations.
The information is also available from your broker or advisor
and from the exchange where the contract is traded.
In futures trading, being right about the direction of prices
isn't enough. It is also necessary to anticipate the timing
of price changes. The reason, of course, is that an adverse
price change may, in the short run, result in a greater loss
than you are willing to accept in the hope of eventually being
proven right in the long run. Example: In January, you
deposit initial margin of $1,500 to buy a May wheat futures
contract at $3.30--anticipating that, by spring, the price will
climb to $3.50 or higher No sooner than you buy the contract,
the price drops to $3.15, a loss of $750. To avoid the risk
of a further loss, you have your broker liquidate the position.
The possibility that the price may now recover--and even climb
to $3.50 or above--is of no consolation. The lesson to be learned
is that deciding when to buy or sell a futures contract can
be as important as deciding what futures contract to buy or
sell. In fact, it can be argued that timing is the key to successful
futures trading.
A stop order is an order, placed with your broker, to buy or
sell a particular futures contract at the market price if and
when the price reaches a specified level. Stop orders are often
used by futures traders in an effort to limit the amount they.
might lose if the futures price moves against their position.
For example, were you to purchase a crude oil futures contract
at $21.00 a barrel and wished to limit your loss to $1.00 a
barrel, you might place a stop order to sell an off-setting
contract if the price should fall to, say, $20.00 a barrel.
If and when the market reaches whatever price you specify, a
stop order becomes an order to execute the desired trade at
the best price immediately obtainable. There can be no
guarantee, however, that it will be possible under all market
conditions to execute the order at the price specified. In an
active, volatile market, the market price may be declining (or
rising) so rapidly that there is no opportunity to liquidate
your position at the stop price you have designated. Under these
circumstances, the broker's only obligation is to execute your
order at the best price that is available. In the event that
prices have risen or fallen by the maximum daily limit, and
there is presently no trading in the contract (known as a "lock
limit" market), it may not be possible to execute your order
at any price. In addition, although it happens infrequently,
it is possible that markets may be lock limit for more than
one day, resulting in substantial losses to futures traders
who may find it impossible to liquidate losing futures positions.
Subject to the kinds of limitations just discussed, stop orders
can nonetheless provide a useful tool for the futures trader
who seeks to limit his losses. Far more often than not, it will
be possible. for the broker to execute a stop order at or near
the specified price. In addition to providing a way to
limit losses, stop orders can also be employed to protect profits.
For instance, if you have bought crude oil futures at $21.00
a barrel and the price is now at $24.00 a barrel, you might
wish to place a stop order to sell if and when the price declines
to $23.00. This (again subject to the described limitations
of stop orders) could protect $2.00 of your existing $3.00 profit
while still allowing you to benefit from any continued increase
in price.
Spreads involve the purchase of one futures contract and the
sale of a different futures contract in the hope of profiting
from a widening or narrowing of the price difference. Because
gains and losses occur only as the result of a change in the
price difference--rather than as a result of a change in the
overall level of futures prices--spreads are often considered
more conservative and less risky than having an outright long
or short futures position. In general, this may be the case.
It should be recognized, though, that the loss from a spread
can be as great as--or even greater than--that which might be
incurred in having an outright futures position. An adverse
widening or narrowing of the spread during a particular time
period may exceed the change in the overall level of futures
prices, and it is possible to experience losses on both of the
futures contracts involved (that is, on both legs of the spread).
Options on Futures Contracts
What are known as put and call options are being traded on a
growing number of futures contracts. The principal attraction
of buying options is that they make it possible to speculate
on increasing or decreasing futures prices with a known and
limited risk. The most that the buyer of an option can lose
is the cost of purchasing the option (known as the option "premium")
plus transaction costs. Options can be most easily understood
when call options and put options are considered separately,
since, in fact, they are totally separate and distinct. Buying
or selling a call in no way involves a put, and buying or selling
a put in no way involves a call.
The buyer of a call option acquires the right but not the obligation
to purchase (go long) a particular futures contract at a specified
price at any time during the life of the option. Each option
specifies the futures contract which may be purchased (known
as the "underlying" futures contract) and the price at which
it can be purchased (known as the "exercise" or "strike" price).
A March Treasury bond 84 call option would convey the right
to buy one March U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at a price
of $84,000 at any time during the life of the option. One reason
for buying call options is to profit from an anticipated increase
in the underlying futures price. A call option buyer will realize
a net profit if, upon exercise, the underlying futures price
is above the option exercise price by more than the premium
paid for the option. Or a profit can be realized it, prior to
expiration, the option rights can be sold for more than they
cost. Example: You expect lower interest rates to result
in higher bond prices (interest rates and bond prices move inversely).
To profit if you are right, you buy a June T-bond 82 call. Assume
the premium you pay is $2,000. If, at the expiration of
the option (in May) the June T-bond futures price is 88, you
can realize a gain of 6 (that's $6,000) by exercising or selling
the option that was purchased at 82. Since you paid $2,000 for
the option, your net profit is $4,000 less transaction costs.
As mentioned, the most that an option buyer can lose is the
option premium plus transaction costs. Thus, in the preceding
example, the most you could have lost--no matter how wrong you
might have been about the direction and timing of interest rates
and bond prices--would have been the $2,000 premium you paid
for the option plus transaction costs. In contrast if you had
an outright long position in the underlying futures contract,
your potential loss would be unlimited. It should be pointed
out, however, that while an option buyer has a limited risk
(the loss of the option premium), his profit potential is reduced
by the amount of the premium. In the example, the option buyer
realized a net profit of $4,000. For someone with an outright
long position in the June T-bond futures contract, an increase
in the futures price from 82 to 88 would have yielded a net
profit of $6,000 less transaction costs. Although an option
buyer cannot lose more than the premium paid for the option,
he can lose the entire amount of the premium. This will be the
case if an option held until expiration is not worthwhile to
exercise.
Whereas a call option conveys the right to purchase (go long)
a particular futures contract at a specified price, a put option
conveys the right to sell (go short) a particular futures contract
at a specified price. Put options can be purchased to profit
from an anticipated price decrease. As in the case of call options,
the most that a put option buyer can lose, if he is wrong about
the direction or timing of the price change, is the option premium
plus transaction costs. Example: Expecting a decline in
the price of gold, you pay a premium of $1,000 to purchase an
October 320 gold put option. The option gives you the right
to sell a 100 ounce gold futures contract for $320 an ounce.
Assume that, at expiration, the October futures price has--as
you expected-declined to $290 an ounce. The option giving you
the right to sell at $320 can thus be sold or exercised at a
gain of $30 an ounce. On 100 ounces, that's $3,000. After subtracting
$1,000 paid for the option, your net profit comes to $2,000.
Had you been wrong about the direction or timing of a change
in the gold futures price, the most you could have lost would
have been the $1,000 premium paid for the option plus transaction
costs. However, you could have lost the entire premium.
How Option Premiums are Determined
Option premiums are determined the same way futures prices are
determined, through active competition between buyers and sellers.
Three major variables influence the premium for a given option:
* The option's exercise price, or, more specifically, the relationship
between the exercise price and the current price of the underlying
futures contract. All else being equal, an option that is already
worthwhile to exercise (known as an "in-the-money" option) commands
a higher premium than an option that is not yet worthwhile to
exercise (an "out-of-the-money" option). For example, if a gold
contract is currently selling at $295 an ounce, a put option
conveying the right to sell gold at $320 an ounce is more valuable
than a put option that conveys the right to sell gold at only
$300 an ounce. * The length of time remaining until expiration.
All else being equal, an option with a long period of time remaining
until expiration commands a higher premium than an option with
a short period of time remaining until expiration because it
has more time in which to become profitable. Said another way,
an option is an eroding asset. Its time value declines as it
approaches expiration. * The volatility of the underlying
futures contract. All rise being equal, the greater the volatility
the higher the option premium. In a volatile market, the option
stands a greater chance of becoming profitable to exercise.
At this point, you might well ask, who sells the options that
option buyers purchase? The answer is that options are sold
by other market participants known as option writers, or grantors.
Their sole reason for writing options is to earn the premium
paid by the option buyer. If the option expires without being
exercised (which is what the option writer hopes will happen),
the writer retains the full amount of the premium. If the option
buyer exercises the option, however, the writer must pay the
difference between the market value and the exercise price.
It should be emphasized and clearly recognized that unlike an
option buyer who has a limited risk (the loss of the option
premium), the writer of an option has unlimited risk. This is
because any gain realized by the option buyer if and when he
exercises the option will become a loss for the option writer.
| |
Reward |
Risk |
| Option Buyer |
Except for the premium, an option buyer has the same
profit potential as someone with an outright position
in the underlying futures contract. |
An option maximum loss: is the premium paid for the
option |
| Option Writer |
An option writer's maximum profit is premium received
for writing the option |
An option writer's loss is unlimited. Except for the
premium received, risk is the same as having an outright
position in the underlying futures contract. |
In Closing The foregoing is,
at most, a brief and incomplete discussion of a complex topic.
Options trading has its own vocabulary and its own arithmetic.
If you wish to consider trading in options on futures contracts,
you should discuss the possibility with your broker and read
and thoroughly understand the Options Disclosure Document which
he is required to provide. In addition, have your broker provide
you with educational and other literature prepared by the exchanges
on which options are traded. Or contact the exchange directly.
A number of excellent publications are available. In no way,
it should be emphasized, should anything discussed herein be
considered trading advice or recommendations. That should be
provided by your broker or advisor. Similarly, your broker or
|